Using Strategic Foresight to Assess Conservation Opportunity

The nature of conservation challenges can foster a reactive, rather than proactive approach to decision making. Failure to anticipate problems before they escalate results in the need for more costly and time‐consuming solutions. Proactive conservation requires forward‐looking approaches to decision making that consider possible futures without being overly constrained by the past. Strategic foresight provides a structured process for considering the most desirable future and for mapping the most efficient and effective approaches to promoting that future with tools that facilitate creative thinking. The process involves 6 steps: setting the scope, collecting inputs, analyzing signals, interpreting the information, determining how to act, and implementing the outcomes. Strategic foresight is ideal for seeking, recognizing, and realizing conservation opportunities because it explicitly encourages a broad‐minded, forward‐looking perspective on an issue. Despite its potential value, the foresight process is rarely used to address conservation issues, and previous attempts have generally failed to influence policy. We present the strategic foresight process as it can be used for proactive conservation planning, describing some of the key tools in the foresight tool kit and how they can be used to identify and exploit different types of conservation opportunities. Scanning is an important tool for collecting and organizing diverse streams of information and can be used to recognize new opportunities and those that could be created. Scenario planning explores how current trends, drivers of change, and key uncertainties might influence the future and can be used to identify barriers to opportunities. Backcasting is used to map out a path to a goal and can determine how to remove barriers to opportunities. We highlight how the foresight process was used to identify conservation opportunities during the development of a strategic plan to address climate change in New York State. The plan identified solutions that should be effective across a range of possible futures. Illustrating the application of strategic foresight to identify conservation opportunities should provide the impetus for decision makers to explore strategic foresight as a way to support more proactive conservation policy, planning, and management.     

Na_2SO_4-MgSO_4-(NH_4)_2SO_4-H_2O四元体系相图研究及其应用

根据不同温度下Na_2SO_4-MgSO_4-(NH_4)_2SO_4-H_2O四元体系相图的绘制,分析了该四元体系相图受温度影响的相图特征,设计了以硫酸铵为盐析剂加工分离白钠镁矾的最佳生产工艺。新工艺具有反应时间短,操作简单,可以生产得到氮镁复肥和无水硫酸钠等优点。此工艺对于克服白钠镁矾的加工分离困难,实现白钠镁矾资源的综合开发和利用具有重要的现实意义。     

古堆泉域岩溶地下水水化学特征及成因

古堆泉为山西省著名岩溶大泉之一,是唯一的中低温温泉,具有悠久的开发观赏历史,凝聚着丰厚的人文积淀.以古堆泉域岩溶地下水为研究对象,通过系统地样品采集与同位素分析,综合运用水化学（Durov图、离子比例、Gibbs图和氢氧同位素）同位素方法分析地下水水化学特征和地下水系统径流特征.古堆泉域岩溶地下水的⁸⁷ Sr/⁸⁶ Sr值在0.709~0.717之间,Mg/（Mg+Ca）值在0.27~0.74之间.通过分析Sr同位素组成和Mg/（Mg+Ca）、1/Sr变化特征,得出古堆泉域岩溶地下水为深部热水与浅部冷水的混合水,中条山南梁泉岩溶水子系统呈现碳酸盐岩地层径流特征,佛岭山-高显海头泉岩溶水子系统和侯马盆地深循环子系统呈现碳酸盐岩地层与火成岩地层径流特征,塔儿山-九原山古堆泉岩溶水子系统呈现碳酸盐岩地层与古老硅铝质岩地层径流特征.通过2014年样品与2021年相同位置取样点的氢氧同位素比对分析,得出古堆泉口水样变化原因是其受三泉水库补给随时间的积累的结果,三泉水库的变化原因是受引黄水的影响.研究区岩溶地下水水化学类型可分为SO₄-Na、SO₄-Ca、HCO₃-Na、HCO₃-Mg、HCO₃-Ca和Cl-Na型.岩溶地下水水化学类型从HCO₃-Ca·Mg→HCO₃·SO₄-Ca·Mg→SO₄·HCO₃-Na·Ca→SO₄·Cl-Na·Ca呈现明显的水化学成分分带.     

基于农作物虚拟水的云南省水资源战略研究

在深入研究虚拟水及虚拟水贸易的基础上,结合云南省2011年统计年鉴数据,建立了虚拟水账户并计算了2010年该区各种农作物虚拟水含量,发现粮食作物和糖料作物消耗水资源最多,并且糖料作物携带大量虚拟水出口。因此,进一步从优化农作物种植结构、利用市场经济推动、调整产业结构3方面提出保障云南省水资源战略安全的对策。     

基于MATLAB GUI的土壤质地类型自动识别系统

土壤质地类型反映了不同粒径颗粒在土壤中的分布,是土壤的最基本性质之一,直接影响土壤中水、气、热和溶质的迁移特征,因此确定土壤质地类型是土壤调查中最基础的工作。我国常用的土壤质地分类标准有美国制、国际制、卡庆斯基制和中国制标准,其中美国制和国际制土壤质地分类需借助平面三角坐标系来确定,不利于批量土壤样品的土壤质地分类。现有的土壤质地自动分类系统中缺少基于卡庆斯基制、中国制的分类功能,且难以直接处理激光粒度仪的测试结果。为能够批量自动实现土壤质地分类并便于不同分类制结果的对比,基于MATLAB GUI开发了土壤质地类型自动识别系统(GSTARS)。该系统界面直观、操作方便,能够批量处理土壤颗粒测试数据和多种格式数据文件,且数据处理容量大;该系统包含了4种国内应用最广的土壤质地分类标准,增加了系统的适用性,便于不同分类制分类结果的对比。与现有土壤质地分类工具的结果对比,表明本系统的分类结果可靠。     

地下水主要组分水化学异常识别方法对比：以柳江盆地为例

地下水化学组分的异常识别是构建水化学背景值及开展人类活动影响程度识别量化的重要基础.以往提出的基于5种水化学图的主要组分异常识别方法取得了良好效果,但是该方法考虑的水化学图种类过多,计算复杂.为简化水化学图法,本文以柳江盆地为例,尝试采用Durov图替代5种水化学图,对地下水主要组分进行异常识别.为此,分别对比分析了水化学图与数理统计法组合出的7种异常识别方法的剔除效果,并进行方法可靠性检验.结果表明,数理统计法与水化学图法结合识别地下水异常相对于两者单独使用可以取得更好的识别效果;其中3σ准则+5种水化学图法和3σ准则+Durov图法对地下水主要组分异常识别效果最好;并证实采用Durov图可以有效替代5种水化学图进行地下水主要组分的异常识别,既保留了水化学识别异常的科学性,又大大简化了异常识别计算的过程.     

Confusing messages of sustainability indicators

This study examines sustainability indicators using the sustainability report of the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry as the case study. The report is a compilation of indicators designed to assess the sustainability of natural resource management. The interviews with the users revealed, however, that the indicators have not been particularly effective in informing the actors or in affecting their behaviour. Clearly, the informative value of the indicators has been overrated and the complexity of the information transfer has been underestimated. At least partly, the difficulties were due to the obscurity of the indicator-concept itself and consequently to their improper use. First, the statistics with the objective state-of-affairs information should be distinguished from the indicators that are always related to policy discussion. In addition, the technical and communicative use of the indicators should be distinguished from each other as they have different relationship between the information, policy values and the associated activities.     

Sustainable innovation in wastewater management: lessons for nutrient recovery and reuse

Urine diversion (UD) has great potential to contribute to sustainably managing wastewater by separating urine at the source and recovering nutrients for reuse in agriculture. While factors enabling the UD technology in Sweden are thought to involve policies supporting nutrient recovery/reuse, on closer inspection, the variable success of UD systems has revealed that critical factors for success also relate to human-centred issues of social organisation, participation and incorporation of social knowledges of a variety of stakeholders into the decision-making process in which new technologies are trialled and adopted. Through the analytical lens of strategic niche management, we consider how early experimentation in UD has involved user participation and whether internal processes of learning, networking and visioning have been consciously considered and to what effect. As niche experiments are enabled/disabled not only by informal institutions such as values and social norms but also formal regulatory institutions, we have concurrently analysed the broader environment in which policies and institutions influence, to varying degrees, the uptake of UD.     

我国能源节约战略研究

节约能源，保护环境，是全面建设小康社会、实现可持续发展的必不可少的前提条件。中国万美元GDP能耗水平是发达国家的3至11倍。节能潜力很大。其中工业部门是我国的能源消费大户。其能源消费占全国能源消费总量的比重一直保持在70％左右，其节能潜力也居第一位。2020年中国实现全面建设小康社会的目标．人均GDP是3000美元，按届时人口15亿计算，全国GDP为49500亿美元，所需要的能源总量是33亿t标准煤，万美元GDP的能耗是6．67吨标煤；人均能耗是2．13吨标煤。只要政策选择适当。我国完全可以以当初发达国家一半的能源供应实现其相应的人均经济发展目标。为此，我们需要继续建立和完善适应市场经济要求的推动能源节约与资源综合利用的新机制；加快制定与《节约能源法》配套法规，引导和规范用能行为；加快建立以企业为主体的技术创新体系。     

重庆市骨架公路网规划生态环境影响评价

战略环境评价作为一种促进可持续发展的重要工具，已经得到了广泛的关注。以重庆市骨架公路网规划生态环境影响评价为例，探讨一种基于规划路网与生态要素空间关系的评价方法。将评价要素分为两类，运用地理信息技术识别出规划路网对4种生态组分影响较大的地区和直接受规划路网影响的自然保护区，做出了空间分布图，并针对存在的问题给出了建议和对策，为合理设计和布设路网提供了依据。提出的基于空间位置关系的评价方法将会促进路网规划环境影响评价的开展。